Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
